The controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill will be tabled in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, day after the bill was passed in the Lok Sabha on Monday midnight. According to reports, the Rajya Sabha, the Upper House of the Parliament, is set to begin its discussion on the bill from 2 PM onwards. The question which is plaguing everyone now concerns whether the central government will be able to pass the much-debated bill in the Rajya Sabha as they did in the Lok Sabha.

Let us look at some facts here.

The Rajya Sabha has a maximum membership of 245, however, it currently has a strength of 240 MPs as five seats are lying vacant. Therefore, the Citizenship Amendment Bill can be passed in the upper house only after the support of at least 121 MPs. The BJP currently has 83 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, i.e., the BJP will need 38 other MPs to pass the bill.

It is being assumed that getting this support will not be a major problem for the BJP since its allies, along with a few other parties, are backing the government on the Citizenship Amendment Bill — AIADMK (11), JDU (6), SAD (3), Independent and Others (13) in the Rajya Sabha. In this way, support from 116 MPs is more or less confirmed for the BJP. 

However, it still needs at least five other MPs to come along on this one. The parties and their MPs who can potentially vote in favour of the government in the Rajya Sabha are — BJD (7), YSRCP (2), and TDP (2). Therefore, if this number comes to fruition, the government can succeed in getting the Citizenship Amendment Bill passed with as many as 127 MPs in total, who are in favour.

Shiv Sena had endorsed the bill in the Lok Sabha but there is a suspense over whether the three Shiv Sena MPs in the Rajya Sabha will support the bill.

If you look at the opposition's strategy, the members will, however, be seen trying to show solidarity on the issue. The Congress has 46 MPs in the Rajya Sabha who will vote against the bill. On Tuesday, Congress leaders also held talks with other opposition parties in the Parliament, with the intent to unite them against the bill. The parties voting against the bill in the Rajya Sabha are — DMK (5), RJD (4), NCP (4), KC(M) (1), PMK (1), IUML (1), MDMK (1), and Others (1). This way, the UPA's figure reaches 64 MPs, not counting the Shiv Sena votes since it is unclear.

Apart from the UPA, several other opposition parties are expected to vote against the bill in the Rajya Sabha, like TMC(13), Samajwadi Party (9), CPI(M) (5), BSP (4), AAP (3), PDP (2), CPI (1), JDS (1), TRS (6). As trends indicate, these parties are against the bill. Therefore, in addition to the UPA, 44 MPs from several opposition parties are likely to vote against the bill.

Which puts the probable number of votes against the Citizenship Amendment Bill to a total of 108.

By and large, the country's eyes will now be on the Rajya Sabha, where the bill will be introduced on Wednesday.