Third COVID wave could be as severe as second, children next vulnerable group: Report

The third wave of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in India could be as severe as the second wave and could last for an average duration of 98 days, according to a report released by the State Bank of India (SBI). However, its impact could be significantly minimised by rigorous vaccination and providing better health infrastructure, the report said.

In its five-page-long report, India's largest public sector bank said that the average duration of the third wave for developed countries was 98 days and that of the second wave was 108 days.

"Average duration of third wave for top countries is 98 days and that of the second wave is 108 days, with third wave peak as a multiple of second at 1.8 and second wave as a multiple of first at 5.2 (for India it was at 4.2)," the SBI Ecowrap report stated.

Citing international experience, the report further suggested that the intensity of the third wave has been as severe as the second wave of COVID. However, if we are better prepared, the decline in serious case rate will lead to less number of deaths, it said.

"It is also observed that in third wave, if we are better prepared, the decline in serious case rate will lead to less number of deaths. We find out that if serious cases decline from 20% to 5% (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in third wave, then the number of deaths in third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000 as compared to current deaths of more that 1.7 lakh," the SBI Ecowrap report said.

It also warned that children could be the next vulnerable group and that vaccination should be the key priority, especially for them.

"So vaccination should be the key priority, especially for the children who could be the next vulnerable group. With around 15-17 crore children in the 12-18 age bracket, India should go for an advanced procurement strategy like that adopted by developed nations to inoculate this age-group," the report stated.

Meanwhile, the Union Health Ministry has informed that nearly 21,60,46,638 vaccine doses have been administered so far under the nationwide vaccination drive.

Source : DNA India