Which countries could become global 'hotspots' for emergence of new coronaviruses?

China, Japan, Philippines and Thailand may turn into "hotspots" favourable for bats that carry coronaviruses and conditions in these places could become ripe for the disease to jump from bats to humans, finds a new study.

The study showed that this is because of the global land-use changes including forest fragmentation, agricultural expansion and concentrated livestock production.

The findings were published by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, the Politecnico di Milano (Polytechnic University of Milan) and the Massey University of New Zealand.

While the exact origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remain unclear, scientists believe that the disease likely emerged when a virus that infects horseshoe bats was able to jump to humans, either directly through wildlife-to-human contact, or indirectly by first infecting an intermediate animal host, such as the pangolin, sometimes known as the scaly anteater.

Horseshoe bats are known to carry a variety of coronaviruses, including strains that are genetically similar to ones that cause Covid-19 and SARS.

The study used remote sensing to analyse land use patterns throughout the horseshoe bat`s range, which extends from Western Europe through Southeast Asia.

By identifying areas of forest fragmentation, human settlement and agricultural and livestock production, and comparing these to known horseshoe bat habitats, they identified potential hot spots where habitat is favourable for these bat species, and where these so-called zoonotic viruses could potentially jump from bats to humans.

The analysis also identified locations that could become easily become hot spots with changes in land use.

"Land use changes can have an important impact on human health, both because we are modifying the environment, but also because they can increase our exposure to zoonotic disease," said Paolo D'Odorico, Professor of environmental science, policy and management at UC Berkeley.

Most of the current hot spots are clustered in China, where a growing demand for meat products has driven the expansion of large-scale, industrial livestock farming.

The analysis also found that parts of Japan, the north Philippines and China south of Shanghai are at risk of becoming hot spots with further forest fragmentation, while parts of Indochina and Thailand may transition into hot spots with increases in livestock production.

"While we are unable to directly trace the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from wildlife to humans, we do know that the type of land use change that brings humans into the picture is typically associated with the presence of these bats who are known to carry the virus," D'Odorico said.

Source : DNA India